Wait A Minute I Perch Views #27

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From below the paywall line in Another 3 I Perch Observations #26:

Another 3

Last week (above) closed with the following:

As goes January, so goes the year

In I’m Not A Cat. I Like The Spot. I Perch Observations #23 I wrote:

The shorter-term price action continues to build upside momentum, and the longer time-frame uptrend remains intact.

The holidays are all but over, and market participants will be returning to the office to begin positioning for 2026. It’s also an election year (midterms). Until either the short- or long-term trend changes, there’s still plenty more to expect from this bull market.

I'm Not A Cat. I Like The Spot. I Perch Observations #23 covered 690 being the first level up to sustain above, and The Blueprint I Perch Observations #25 included this chart:

Here’s the latest SPY chart. Was last week the final test of the gap so price can now sustain above 690? My lean is yes, and the support line has moved up to the top of the gap around 682.

Here are charts of the other Big 4 indices:

IWM - Small Caps

DIA - Dow Jones

One is not like the other three- QQQ Nasdaq:

Last week (above) included non-U.S. charts, all of which are trending higher. Nvidia (NVDA) shows the gift and the curse of market cap-weighted indices. Great when the highest weightings force the indices higher. Not so great when they cause the broader market to lag relative to the equal-weight equivalents (QQQE) and (RSP):

NVDA Nvidia - Chopping around building the levels.

(QQQE) Nasdaq Equal Weight- On the breakout line while the Nasdaq market cap-weighted (QQQ) is still building up the levels (above).

RSP S&P Equal Weight- Broke out before the market cap-weighted (SPY) (above).

Since The Great Glass Elevator I Perch Observations #15 it’s been all about the Wall of Worry aka “The AI bubble:”

Despite the range-bound action, the charts have remained bullish as far back as I don’t wanna talk to a scientist. It’s the gaps, stupid. I Perch Observations #17:

My guess is this is just a retest before resuming higher …

Right now, the price action continues to support this thesis, so I lean bullish for a move up and out of this range …

From Back To The Beginning I Perch Observations #19:

It could simply be just there is a lot of headlines to retest:

• The September high

• The Oct 10th headline bomb

• The China trade agreement headlines

• The 1 or 2 rate cut headlines

• The October high

The latest price action says to remain bullish, so I still expect price to move out of this range sooner rather than later.

It took the Santa Claus Rally to finally break out of the range. Now the question becomes:

Same Nasdaq (QQQ) chart from above:

I hope your risk management is dialed in and your thesis is clear.

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